Stock Thesis Building with AI

This week I will show you my process to use AI to turn a "hunch" I have into a properly researched investment thesis.

The context: As a user of both Upwork and Fiverr, as well as a power user of AI products, I had a couple raw thoughts I wanted to investigate:

GenAI is taking share away from certain types of freelance based work particularly with design type tasks
Fiverr primarily is used for one-off tasks while Upwork is focused on longer term freelance hirings
Could the mix of freelance work shift towards (1) Less design and more AI assistance work (2) Less "one off" tasks and more long term contracts where humans plug the gap that AI cannot automate
If true, this could be a potentially interesting pairs trade (long Upwork / short Fiverr) with the thesis that Upwork is better positioned to take market share on both sides of quality freelancers and high paying customers

Here's our gameplan:

Use ChatGPT o3 to craft an extremely detailed prompt
Paste this prompt into ChatGPT Deep Research
Attach 10Ks / 10Qs and earnings transcripts for RAG

The Prompt:

Step 1: Crafting the Prompt (ChatGPT o3)

I am a tech equities investor and I am looking into Fiverr ($FVRR). I want you to assist me in drafting a prompt for ChatGPT deep research to help me get familiarity with the full operational and financial breakdown of the company. It is imperative that the analysis is unbiased as possible (DO NOT INJECT BIAS TO PLEASE ME THE USER .... CONFIRM OR DENY ANYTHING I ASK OBJECTIVELY). I want to test the hypothesis that the advancement of generative AI across multiple verticals along with competition with Upwork will reduce volume and future earnings. And if this is already "priced in" for the stock. Please help me draft a prompt. Ask me questions and interview me for clarification before you begin.

Step 2: Pasting the Above Result to ChatGPT Deep Research

System

You are an unbiased equity research analyst with a focus on gig-economy and tech platforms. Your goal is to provide a rigorous, objective assessment of Fiverr International Ltd. ($FVRR) over the next 12-18 months, benchmarked against key competitors. Do not inject opinions to please me. Confirm or challenge any claims with evidence.

User

I need a comprehensive operational and financial breakdown of Fiverr that specifically tests this hypothesis:

“Rapid advancement of generative AI and rising competition (notably Upwork) will reduce Fiverr’s marketplace volume and future earnings, and much of this risk is already reflected in today’s share price.”

Deliverables

Produce a long-form narrative using clear Markdown headings and concise bullet points. No tables. Cite sources inline.

Scope and Tasks

Company Snapshot and Core KPIs

Brief business overview, GMV trends, take-rate, buyer/seller mix. Key valuation multiples today vs 3-year average: P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, FCF yield.

Competitive Benchmark

Compare Fiverr with Upwork, Toptal, Freelancer, and other gig platforms on growth, margins, and AI adoption. Highlight any structural advantages or disadvantages.

Generative-AI Impact Assessment

Quantify exposure by category: copywriting, image, video, coding, UX/UI.Note evidence (SEC filings, earnings calls) of category volume shifts since ChatGPT launch (Nov 2022 to present).Include third-party dataset or reputable blog analysis if available.

Market Expectations vs Reality

Implied growth: back-out revenue CAGR from current valuation using a simple DCF or reverse-DCF. Sell-side consensus gaps: where your forecast diverges from street estimates. Options market: summarize implied 1-year move and skew if liquid contracts exist.

Sentiment Check

Synthesize notable investor discussions from high-quality forums (ValueInvestorsClub, Twitter/X FinTwit accounts, Seeking Alpha with strong track record).Flag dominant bull and bear arguments.

Risk Matrix (Bullet List)

Macro, FX (Israeli shekel), platform disintermediation, regulatory, talent pricing compression, etc.

Unanswered Questions / Further Work

List any critical data you could not find or that looks inconsistent.Suggest follow-up research or monitoring triggers.

Data and Sources

Pull latest 10-K, 20-F, 10-Q, earnings-call transcripts. Reference SEC EDGAR, company IR presentations, and S-1 history. Use trusted third-party datasets (e.g., Similarweb traffic, App Store rankings) and reputable industry blogs. Integrate any PDFs or notes I upload for RAG. Provide inline citations with publication date.

Output Formatting Rules

Use H2 (##) and H3 (###) headings.Bullet points only under each heading.No tables. No emoji.Keep writing concise and objective.

Tone Check

Professional and direct. Avoid hype, avoid hedged language like “could possibly.” State probabilities if you can quantify. No em dashes.

Step 3: Ask GPT Deep Research to Repeat for Upwork

I want you now to conduct the same exact analysis except this time for Upwork. I have uploaded relevant documents for RAG. Please add one additional section at the end on who is better positioned between Upwork vs Fiverr and who is gaining market share.