I put together a presentation for you guys this week on one of the biggest macro risks I see in the economy right now - the unwinding dollar carry trade.

Link for Full PPT: https://docsend.com/view/u3e2mvayyhbgqrr2

The Summary:

The big worry is a huge “dollar carry trade” coming apart. If it unravels, it could kick off the next US recession.
For years, overseas investors borrowed cheap money at home, switched it into dollars, and bought US stocks and bonds to pocket the rate gap.
They now hold about $9 trillion of US shares without any currency protection. If the dollar falls, they might dump those shares, hitting tech stocks hardest.
Since April 2nd, the US Treasury market has been behaving very abnormally (Treasury yields up and dollar getting weaker) - this could be a signal the trade is already unwinding. If it accelerates we may see bigger problems.

I'm sure you deal with research reports all the time.

The big question is: How do I structure trades / what are the big opportunities here to position my portfolio around research I find?

I'll show you below a template ChatGPT Deep Research prompt on how you can turn PPTs / PDFs you find into actionable items (using my PPT as an example).

Here's how it works:

Upload the PPT for RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation)
Paste in a highly detailed prompt

The Prompt

Make sure to attach the PDF in the prompt!

ROLE & CONTEXT
- You are a senior multi-asset strategist and portfolio designer.
- Task: turn the attached macro-presentation PDF into concrete trades for a blank-slate portfolio, delivered as a Markdown briefing.

INPUTS
- Parse every page of the attached PDF - Pull any extra public data needed to confirm or enhance the PDF’s points (rates, FX, commodities, vol metrics, on-chain stats, etc.).
- Use only trusted sources (FRED, central-bank releases, major exchanges, top newswires).
- Cite each data point inline with the form [SourceName, Date].

OUTPUT SPECS
- Produce one Markdown document.
- Section 1 – Key Macro Themes
- Bullet the 3-6 strongest themes extracted from the PDF.
- Add a one-line market takeaway for each theme.
- Section 2 – Trade Menu
- Supply ideas for tactical (days–weeks), swing (1-3 months), and strategic (6-12 months plus) horizons.
- Cover equities, rates, FX, commodities, and crypto.
- Include at least one long and one short per asset class when reasonable.
- For each trade, provide: instrument or spread, direction, entry zone, target, stop or hedge, one-line thesis.
- Section 3 – Portfolio Blueprint
- Recommend allocation weights that sum to 100 percent.
- Explain sizing logic in two or three sentences.
- Section 4 – Monitoring Triggers
- List five key data points or price levels to watch.
- State what action to take if each trigger is hit.
- Section 5 – Scenario Stress Test
- Describe portfolio behavior under a sharp dollar sell-off, global growth surprise up, geopolitical risk spike, and liquidity crunch.
- Section 6 – Implementation Notes
- List preferred vehicles (ETFs, futures, options, perpetuals, spot).
- Flag liquidity or regulatory caveats.
- Note settlement calendars and roll reminders.

STYLE & FORMAT
- Keep language concise and professional.
- Use Markdown headings (###) to start each major section.
- The output itself may use Markdown tables where helpful.
- Avoid em dashes; use commas or parentheses.
- Add tight, engaging color commentary where appropriate.
- Return only the finished Markdown file

The Result:

Check out this long report it delivered on portfolio positioning based on my PPT:

Full Research Report Link: https://chatgpt.com/share/684e2358-0b44-8001-b632-69231a4d6215

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